Simon Derrick ist leitender Devisenstratege bei BNY Mellon und kommentiert den Beschluss der EZB zum Ankauf von Staatsanleihen. Das Praxismagazin für Finanzthemen Onlineausgabe des Printmagazins Finanzen Markt & Meinungen.

 
 
23.01.2015 15:43 Uhr
EZB STAATSANLEIHENANKAUF

BNY Devisenstratege Simon Derrick über den EZB-Beschluss zum Anleihekaufprogramm

Düsseldorf, 23.01.2015 15:43 Uhr (Gastautor)

Nach­fol­gend eine Einschät­zung von Simon Derrick, leitender Devi­sen­stra­tege bei BNY Mellon in London, zur verkün­deten Entschei­dung der EZB, Staats­an­leihen von Euro-Ländern aufzu­kaufen (in engli­scher Spra­che).

The idea that the ECB would launch a programme of QE has been common currency since November 6th when Mr Draghi declared the governing council was "unanimous" in its commitment to using additional, unconventional measures if needed and that ECB staff had been told to go off and contemplate further measures. Subsequent comments from both Mr Draghi and others have made it clear that QE has been an active topic of discussion within the bank. Most recently Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told Liberation (in an interview published on Friday morning of last week): "We will take the U.S. and British experiences into account to determine the amount of bonds to buy in order to restore confidence in the fact that inflation will come back to a level close to and below 2%." He added that weaker-than-expected growth and inflation "oblige us to react and, once more, to imagine instruments to support growth."

BNY Mellon Simon Derrick
BNY Mellon Simon Derrick

Reports about the likely composition of the programme began to appear last Friday evening when the FT published a story with the headline: "ECB set to bow to German pressure over QE." The paper reported that the ECB was "set to embark on quantitative easing" and noted that "the most likely option at this stage (is) for the ECB to force the 19 national central banks that make up the eurozone to stand behind their own sovereign bonds." The paper also highlighted that while neither of the German members on the governing council were expected to support the decision to embark on QE, the decision to go down this route provided Mr. Draghi with the opportunity to announce a large package of purchases (e.g. over EUR 0.5 Trn) or give an "open-ended commitment to buy sovereign debt until inflation approaches the central bank's target of just below 2%."

Additional significant detail about the likely composition of the policy emerged yesterday with the WSJ reporting that the ECB executive board had proposed a plan to buy roughly EUR 50 Bn of government bonds a month for a minimum of one year. Bloomberg reported separately that the programme would run through until the end of 2016 (although it would not start until March of this year). The FT subsequently reported that the ECB was expected to buy all sovereign debt with an investment grade rating of triple B or higher and that nations with junk ratings will only qualify if they are part of a reform programme. It added that conditions were likely to be set in a way that would preclude Greece from participating in bond buying immediately.

In the event what emerged from today's meeting was slightly better than the market might have expected based upon the previous reports with the main difference being that the monthly purchases of EUR 60 Bn (i..e. EUR 50 Bn over the current monthly purchases) will last until at least September 2016 and will continue until there is a sustained adjustment in Eurozone inflation. In other words there will be at least EUR 1Trn of additional purchases but the programme is open ended.

Previous reports indicated that while German officials remain opposed to QE (both Jens Weidmann Sabine Lautenschläger have made clear they believe economic conditions do not warrant QE) other sceptics (most notably Klaas Knot) had been swayed by the decision to make national central banks shoulder the responsibility for losses from purchases of their national debt. In the event Mr Draghi sidestepped the entire issue by saying that because a large majority had seen to trigger the plan now it had been decided there was no need to take a vote on going ahead.

Beyond wondering why the ECB seemed so keen to telegraph its intentions to do something ahead of today's meeting (was it trying to avoid the kind of market disruption seen last week when the SNB abandoned its "minimum exchange rate" policy?) the real question now is quite what the policy is intended to achieve. Given that bond yields across much of Europe (Greece excepted) are trading at historic lows, it is difficult to argue that the programme is targeting borrowing costs. So what is it aimed at? Perhaps the best way of answering this is to look at the most noticeable impact that QE policies have had elsewhere in the world.

The first QE operation of the modern era was launched by the BOJ in March of 2001. The initial size of the "Rinban" operations back then was set at a relatively modest JPY 400 Bn and appeared to have little currency impact. However, a tipping point was reached in December of that year when the bank said that it would increase its operations to JPY 800 Bn a month (while also increasing the amount available for short-term loans to companies and banks from JPY 6/JPY 9 Trn to JPY 15 Trn). At this point USD/JPY started to rise rapidly, sprinting up from JPY124 to JPY133 over the next two months. Tellingly, this move came despite the fact that the Federal Reserve had cut its target rate for Fed Funds by 25 bp to 1.75% on December 11th. This also marked the point that Japanese investors began to push money into overseas markets in search of higher yields and international investors returned to using the JPY as a funding vehicle for carry trade activity. A very similar story emerged in late 2008/early 2009 with the early rounds of QE from the Federal Reserve only having a temporary impact on the USD while the later rounds (i.e. from March 2009 onwards) served to steadily weaken the USD through until the summer of 2011.

This time around it seems unlikely that there will be many complaints from southern Europe about a steady weakening of the EUR. Indeed, Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi told the WSJ yesterday that he welcomes the recent decline in the EUR and added: "My dream is parity (against the USD)." However, it is hard to believe that the German authorities will feel quite the same way given everything we have seen over the past 50 years (it's worth recalling that Germany was the first major nation to leave the Bretton Woods system, exiting in May 1971 rather than continuing to intervene and cut interest rates in order to keep the DEM in line with a weakening USD). Given this we are reminded that German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble told a conference in Paris in July of last year (as reported by Reuters) that a strong EUR has its advantages, adding: "We have to concentrate on whether the European economy is competitive and then we will have an appropriate exchange rate." Perhaps this is the real story that is brewing as the year gets properly under way.


(Quelle: BNY Mellon Markets Strategy Team)

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